In a dramatic departure from decades of bipartisan US foreign policy consensus, US President Donald Trump has unleashed a series of moves that mark a stark reorientation in America’s approach toward Asia. At the heart of this strategic pivot is a bewildering paradox. While India, long viewed as a vital democratic partner and counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific, is being hit with punishing tariffs and harsh rhetoric, America’s principal strategic rival China is enjoying a surprising thaw.
Also Read: Trump’s 50% tariff shock hits India – what it means for growth, jobs, and hardest-hit sectors
India in Trump's cross hairs
A new round of US tariffs on India is coming into effect, a total of 50% duties on a range of Indian exports. This steep hike follows an earlier 25% tariff announced by Trump, which was doubled via executive order earlier this month for India’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
What stands out is not only the economic weight of the tariffs but also the political message they send. These measures come alongside a complete breakdown in trade talks with India and sharply critical comments from Trump administration officials, notably trade hawk Peter Navarro. The tone has shifted from partnership to punishment, leaving policymakers in both countries and foreign policy experts stunned. This is not merely a trade decision. It’s a major diplomatic disruption.
China gets a pass
In stark contrast, Trump has taken an altogether different approach with China. Despite China being the largest buyer of Russian oil, it has avoided additional tariffs. In fact, on August 12, Trump postponed tariffs on Chinese imports for another 90 days, maintaining levies at just 30%, far below the new Indian rate.
That’s not all. During a press conference with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, Trump announced he will allow 600,000 of them into US universities, nearly double the existing number. This is a significant shift from prior Trump policies, which introduced restrictive visa measures and scrutinised Chinese nationals under the lens of national security.
“We’re getting along very well with China… It’s very insulting to say ‘students can’t come here,’” Trump told reporters. “You know what would happen if they didn’t? Our college system would go to hell, very quickly.”
Also Read: India's Russian oil gains wiped out by Trump's tariffs
A policy reversal?
This uneven treatment has upended the foundational logic of America's Indo-Pacific strategy that India is a natural ally in containing the rise of an authoritarian China. The policy had long been shared across administrations, from Bush to Obama to Biden, and enjoyed broad bipartisan support. By penalising India more harshly than China, Trump risks eroding trust in a relationship painstakingly built over two decades. US-India defence cooperation, intelligence sharing, joint military exercises and technology transfers, all of which had deepened in recent years, are now at risk.
Even more jarring is the optics of Trump offering concessions to China while cracking down on India. Trump has lifted export restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips to China, reversing a national security-driven ban. In a shocking decision, he recently blocked a stopover by the Taiwanese president in the US. Trump is pushing for denuclearization talks with both Russia and China, positioning China as a necessary dialogue partner in broader security efforts. A top Chinese trade envoy is expected in Washington soon, targeting trade deficit reduction and logistical coordination, another sign of renewed communication channels.
Trump also told reporters on Monday that he expects to visit China this year or shortly afterwards, noting that economic ties between the two countries have improved. Trump pointed to recent talks with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping: "At some point, probably during this year or shortly thereafter, we'll go to China." "We're going to have a great relationship with China," Trump vowed. He added: "They have some cards. We have incredible cards, but I don't want to play those cards. If I played those cards, that would destroy China."
The cumulative effect of these decisions is a foreign policy that increasingly favors accommodation with China, even as India, an old democratic ally, is alienated. While most Republican lawmakers have not voiced their concerns openly, Democrats are vocal in their opposition. “President Trump is giving away the farm to Xi just so he can save face and reach a nonsensical trade deal with Beijing that will hurt American families economically,” Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee told AP a few weeks ago. “With President Trump, everything seems to be open for negotiation, and there are few if any red lines,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director of the global consultancy Teneo, has told AP. “The hawks worry that if Trump gets into a room with Xi, he will agree to extraordinary concessions, especially if he believes that a big, beautiful deal is within reach.”
Many argue Trump’s hands are tied. The US remains deeply dependent on Chinese goods, especially rare earth materials, essential for defense systems and green technologies. Trump himself hinted at this strategic leverage, saying: “They have some cards. We have incredible cards, but I don’t want to play those cards. If I played those cards, that would destroy China.” But this admission underlines the fragility of the US position and exposes the danger of over-relying on adversarial regimes.
Trump’s current approach, rewarding China while penalising India, may deliver short-term deals or headlines, but it poses serious risks to America’s long-term strategic posture. His foreign policy has always been driven by instinct and negotiation, not doctrine. But the emerging pattern of going soft on China while going hard on India is not only inconsistent, it is strategically incoherent. In an era of intensifying geopolitical competition, alienating a key democratic partner while appeasing an authoritarian rival risks doing lasting damage to US credibility and leadership.
(With inputs from agencies)
Also Read: Trump’s 50% tariff shock hits India – what it means for growth, jobs, and hardest-hit sectors
India in Trump's cross hairs
A new round of US tariffs on India is coming into effect, a total of 50% duties on a range of Indian exports. This steep hike follows an earlier 25% tariff announced by Trump, which was doubled via executive order earlier this month for India’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
What stands out is not only the economic weight of the tariffs but also the political message they send. These measures come alongside a complete breakdown in trade talks with India and sharply critical comments from Trump administration officials, notably trade hawk Peter Navarro. The tone has shifted from partnership to punishment, leaving policymakers in both countries and foreign policy experts stunned. This is not merely a trade decision. It’s a major diplomatic disruption.
China gets a pass
In stark contrast, Trump has taken an altogether different approach with China. Despite China being the largest buyer of Russian oil, it has avoided additional tariffs. In fact, on August 12, Trump postponed tariffs on Chinese imports for another 90 days, maintaining levies at just 30%, far below the new Indian rate.
That’s not all. During a press conference with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, Trump announced he will allow 600,000 of them into US universities, nearly double the existing number. This is a significant shift from prior Trump policies, which introduced restrictive visa measures and scrutinised Chinese nationals under the lens of national security.
“We’re getting along very well with China… It’s very insulting to say ‘students can’t come here,’” Trump told reporters. “You know what would happen if they didn’t? Our college system would go to hell, very quickly.”
Also Read: India's Russian oil gains wiped out by Trump's tariffs
A policy reversal?
This uneven treatment has upended the foundational logic of America's Indo-Pacific strategy that India is a natural ally in containing the rise of an authoritarian China. The policy had long been shared across administrations, from Bush to Obama to Biden, and enjoyed broad bipartisan support. By penalising India more harshly than China, Trump risks eroding trust in a relationship painstakingly built over two decades. US-India defence cooperation, intelligence sharing, joint military exercises and technology transfers, all of which had deepened in recent years, are now at risk.
Even more jarring is the optics of Trump offering concessions to China while cracking down on India. Trump has lifted export restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chips to China, reversing a national security-driven ban. In a shocking decision, he recently blocked a stopover by the Taiwanese president in the US. Trump is pushing for denuclearization talks with both Russia and China, positioning China as a necessary dialogue partner in broader security efforts. A top Chinese trade envoy is expected in Washington soon, targeting trade deficit reduction and logistical coordination, another sign of renewed communication channels.
Trump also told reporters on Monday that he expects to visit China this year or shortly afterwards, noting that economic ties between the two countries have improved. Trump pointed to recent talks with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping: "At some point, probably during this year or shortly thereafter, we'll go to China." "We're going to have a great relationship with China," Trump vowed. He added: "They have some cards. We have incredible cards, but I don't want to play those cards. If I played those cards, that would destroy China."
The cumulative effect of these decisions is a foreign policy that increasingly favors accommodation with China, even as India, an old democratic ally, is alienated. While most Republican lawmakers have not voiced their concerns openly, Democrats are vocal in their opposition. “President Trump is giving away the farm to Xi just so he can save face and reach a nonsensical trade deal with Beijing that will hurt American families economically,” Rep. Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee told AP a few weeks ago. “With President Trump, everything seems to be open for negotiation, and there are few if any red lines,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director of the global consultancy Teneo, has told AP. “The hawks worry that if Trump gets into a room with Xi, he will agree to extraordinary concessions, especially if he believes that a big, beautiful deal is within reach.”
Many argue Trump’s hands are tied. The US remains deeply dependent on Chinese goods, especially rare earth materials, essential for defense systems and green technologies. Trump himself hinted at this strategic leverage, saying: “They have some cards. We have incredible cards, but I don’t want to play those cards. If I played those cards, that would destroy China.” But this admission underlines the fragility of the US position and exposes the danger of over-relying on adversarial regimes.
Trump’s current approach, rewarding China while penalising India, may deliver short-term deals or headlines, but it poses serious risks to America’s long-term strategic posture. His foreign policy has always been driven by instinct and negotiation, not doctrine. But the emerging pattern of going soft on China while going hard on India is not only inconsistent, it is strategically incoherent. In an era of intensifying geopolitical competition, alienating a key democratic partner while appeasing an authoritarian rival risks doing lasting damage to US credibility and leadership.
(With inputs from agencies)
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